54 Tanzania
54.1 Post-independence failure
Ray Bush
The amnesia about how early post-independence leaders tried to secure the “newly-won freedom of their countries through policies that were designed … to promote autonomous development processes anchored on the demands and needs of a home market” (1). Nyerere, for example, rebuked the IFIs when they accused him of failure, noting that at independence 85% of Tanzania was illiterate and they had just two trained engineers and 12 medical doctors – after 43 years of British colonial rule. Under Nyerere, Tanzania ensured 91% literacy, that all children were in school and that per capita income grew dramatically. After reluctantly accepting IFI diktats, key social and economic indices plummeted. In discrediting the first 20 years of autonomous and autochthonous African post-independence development policy and strategy, the IFIs provided a narrative to justify what became the ruinous years of structural adjustment. While the heart of the neoliberal project is to discredit African strategy and practice, this collection highlights that the idea of African post-independence failure was manufactured and “deliberately misleading.
54.2 2024 Outook
Opalo
The country I am most excited about in 2024 is Tanzania. CCM, the ruling party, enjoys a 77% approval rating. While some of this is due to (at times violent) oppression of opposition parties, there’s no denying that Nyerere’s party enjoys broad-based legitimacy. President Samia Suluhu Hassan appears to have finally stamped her authority on CCM (with some help from the Jakaya Kikwete wing of the party). The economy is projected to grow by about 6% in 2024. And Tanzania continues to consolidate its position as the future gateway into East and Central Africa with important infrastructure plays — including ports, an expanded rail line to the northwest, and planned Chinese collaboration in the running of the Tazara line into Zambia (which should increase efficiency).
Agriculture, mining, construction, and services (especially tourism) will be the main engines of growth in the medium term.
Human capital development is Tanzania’s weakest link. The Tanzanian education system (the subject of the book I am currently working on) continues to be hobbled by under-investment at all levels and a confused language policy. There is an urgent need to streamline the language policy, in addition to investments in context-relevant research at the tertiary level.